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March 16, 2004

An al Qaeda document reveals that the terror group specificially targeted regime change in Spain, with an eye toward a Socialist Party victory and the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq, according to a report from CNN.

Reports of the document's existence remove what little doubt may have existed that the Madrid bombings were an al Qaeda-linked effort as well as making it clear that the political ramifications of the attack were carefully thought out. The report also suggests the timing of the attack was specifically geared toward the election.

The report also again raises the specter of an "October surprise" terror attack in the U.S., just before the November elections. However, that scenario is based on the possibly debateable premise that al Qaeda desires to see regime change in the U.S.

While a successful repeat of the Spanish scenario would potentially enhance al Qaeda's standing internationally, the terror organization actually benefits from a confrontational U.S. foreign policy, which helps with recruiting and discourages countries in the Middle East, East Asia and Southeastern Asia from fully participating in American anti-terror efforts.

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March 15, 2004

The incumbent government of Spain lost the general election on Sunday, setting a troubling new precedent in the war on terrorism.

The election was thrown wide open last week after a devastating bomb attack killed nearly 200 people in Madrid. Before the attack, the socialist party opposition had been an underdog with no serious prospect for victory. Thursday's bombing changed all that.

The government responded to the attack by blaming Basque separatists, a politically expedient conclusion that investigators steadfastly maintained despite numerous indicators that al Qaeda might have been involved.

After a videotape released Saturday showed an alleged al Qaeda spokesman claiming responsibility for the blast, public skepticism toward the incumbent government swelled to massive proportions, as thousands of protestors flooded the capitol to accuse the government of withholding information.

If the attack originated with Qaeda, it was perceived as being tied to Spain's support of the U.S. war on Iraq — support that the new prime minister withdrew as his first official act.

In short, regardless of who is eventually found responsible for the Madrid bombs, al Qaeda has succeeded in creating a climate in which terrorism can effect regime change in targeted countries.

This represents a radical change in al Qaeda's currency as an international power player. Indeed, if the attack proves to be an al Qaeda operation, its success dwarfs the September 11 attack for its political impact.

Even more frightening, it raises the near certain threat of an "October Surprise" in the U.S. presidential elections. While a late-breaking attack has weighed on the minds of all concerned in the 2004 presidential election, the outcome in Spain virtually assures a full-court press against the U.S. by al Qaeda in October.

Almost nothing that happens in the U.S. presidential election before October now matters (unless the campaigns now steer themselves exclusively toward how they plan to respond to an attack that month). In the space of the last week, Osama bin Laden has emeged as a shadow candidate in the U.S. political process, and his only possible role is that of the spoiler.

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March 9, 2004

There's no positive spin that the West can put on the impending release of Abu Bak'r Bashir. Accused of being the spiritual head of Jemaah Islamiah, Bashir is widely considered an Islamic extremist idealogue on the scale of Osama bin Laden.

The Indonesian government's inability to convict Bashir of any terrorism-related crimes highlights significant legalistic obstacles that lie ahead. Its political inability to hold him even for the full sentence of his term on lesser offenses highlights how the Western point of view is losing the hearts and minds of moderate Muslims in Southeast Asia.

While there is little doubt the U.S. will ensure a conviction for Osama bin Laden in the event of his capture, Bashir's acquittal serves to legitimize the role of clerics and theologians as adjuncts to operational terrorists. There was little danger of an OBL conviction being considered legitimate by fundamentalist Muslim states in the first place; the Bashir release provides a legal precedent which can only serve to bolster a pro-bin Laden viewpoint overseas.

Bashir's release is likely to revitalize JI, which had been signficantly impacted by the arrests of both Bashir and JI's former operational mastermind, Hambali. Complicating matters further, Indonesia and Malaysia have been pressing the U.S. to extradite Hambali to Southeast Asia for prosecution there. In light of how the Bashir case has been handled, the U.S. can't be enthusiastic about that course of action. But refusing to extradite Hambali runs its own risk of alienating governments whose cooperation the U.S. badly needs.

No matter how one looks at it, the Bashir precedent represents nothing short of a disaster for the West in its War on Terror, one with far-reaching implications in the practical short-term as well as the ideological long view.

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March 5, 2004

UPI — For the first time, U.S. officials are suggesting that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is connected to Ramzi Yousef, a claim which takes on major importance in light of the never-proven belief by some associates of the Bush administration that Saddam Hussein sponsored the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center. The administration has claimed al-Zarqawi's presence in Iraq as evidence of collusion between Hussein and al Qaeda, but that link is also currently unproven.

Intelligence officials told UPI that Yousef and al-Zarqawi may have been friends, and also tied al-Zarqawi to Pakistani terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Daud Badini, Yousef's brother-in-law, is thought to be tied to LEJ. However, sources also told UPI that al-Zarqawi may have broken with al Qaeda to operate without bin Laden's, a belief echoed in several media reports over the last week after a major attack targeting Shi'ite Muslims in Iraq.

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