Zazi Pleads Guilty

The plea is sealed but here's the DOJ press release:

Najibullah Zazi guilty plea

It's clear from the information revealed in this release that Al Qaeda Core is now focusing on smaller scale attacks.

The conventional wisdom for years has been that AQ wanted to stage an attack even more spectacular than 9/11 and was not interested in smaller operations. I personally doubt whether this was ever true (there was already strong evidence to the contrary), but at this point no one can credibly mount this claim.

This has to be seen as a negative development, since smaller attacks are easier to accomplish and pressing small attacks does not preclude the simultaneous deployment of a spectacular attack.

In fact, if the operations are properly compartmentalized, smaller attacks could distract focus away from a larger operation. U.S. counterterrorism focus is highly reactive. For instance, we might be preoccupied chasing breast impant bombs with body scanners while someone is stowing a dirty bomb on an LNG tanker from Yemen.

Another interesting point here is that Zazi traveled specifically to fight for the Taliban and only after arriving on the ground was he diverted to Al Qaeda. Since 2003, we’ve seen an increase in cases where potential foreign fighters are diverted to terrorism before they gain any battleground experience.

Prior to 2001, fighters would more often cut their teeth in a more traditional foreign fighter combat or even regular military environment, and after proving themselves under those conditions then be recruited to receive specialized training for terrorism.

For instance, Khalid Shaik Mohammed went to Bosnia in 1992 to play a support role for the mujahideen, but returned in 1995 to recruit terrorist operatives from the pool of experienced fighters.

There is a useful distinction and transition to explore between jihadist (which I am defining as a foreign fighter taking part in a localized armed conflict or insurgency) and what I would call a “networked terrorist” (attacking non-combatant civilian targets outside of a hot conflict zone). I'll get into this more in my forthcoming book.

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Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink